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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| Contestable-Parfait | ic4cream | machinelearned | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 61% (2412–1527, n=3939) | 65% (2206–1190, n=3396) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $574K | $35K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #115 | PM monthly #45 | PM monthly #594 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (16 of 23 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
|
|
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 14 at avg 64¢, ROI −13% | 100% of 2100 at avg 59¢, ROI +40% | 98% of 1295 at avg 73¢, ROI +21% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 0% of 4) | 2% (won 100% of 34) | 3% (won 64% of 42) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 100% of 2) | 24% (won 100% of 495) | 6% (won 93% of 75) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 48% (won 100% of 1016) | 28% (won 100% of 360) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 57% (won 100% of 8) | 26% (won 100% of 555) | 63% (won 100% of 818) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.