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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| CHAPUBARA | ic4cream | machinelearned | Bonereaper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 61% (2442–1553, n=3995) | 65% (2219–1202, n=3421) | 86% (43246–6849, n=50095) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $574K | $35K | $14.9M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #297 | PM monthly #45 | PM monthly #548 | PM monthly #274 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
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| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 100% of 2100 at avg 59¢, ROI +40% | 98% of 1295 at avg 73¢, ROI +21% | 98% of 36616 at avg 67¢, ROI +24% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 2% (won 100% of 34) | 3% (won 64% of 42) | 4% (won 85% of 1370) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 24% (won 100% of 495) | 6% (won 93% of 75) | 16% (won 95% of 5840) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 48% (won 100% of 1016) | 28% (won 100% of 360) | 35% (won 98% of 12695) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 26% (won 100% of 555) | 63% (won 100% of 818) | 46% (won 100% of 16711) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | CHAPUBARA | ic4cream | machinelearned | Bonereaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET opposite sides · consensus Down | — | — | Down $476 | Up $11 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET same side · consensus Up | — | — | Up $415 | Up $47 |