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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BlackPeopleDontRecycle | manekineko | Vitaaalya | 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 87% (337–52, n=389) | 66% (72–37, n=109) | 93% (56495–4187, n=60682) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $76K | $76K | $7.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #750 | Hand-picked | Hand-picked | PM monthly #706 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 75% (9 of 12 open) | 71% (5 of 7 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=55 | Politics −2 pts, n=55 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 166 at avg 80¢, ROI +1% | 86% of 444 at avg 85¢, ROI +1% | 62% of 233 at avg 54¢, ROI +1% | 100% of 61974 at avg 64¢, ROI +38% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 0% of 5) | 8% (won 9% of 34) | 33% (won 21% of 76) | 3% (won 100% of 1837) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 25% of 8) | 4% (won 35% of 17) | 10% (won 26% of 23) | 16% (won 100% of 9770) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 54% of 24) | 5% (won 63% of 24) | 15% (won 76% of 34) | 44% (won 100% of 27390) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 78% (won 91% of 129) | 83% (won 97% of 369) | 43% (won 97% of 100) | 37% (won 100% of 22977) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BlackPeopleDontRecycle | manekineko | Vitaaalya | 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $21K | No $860 | — |
| Trump out as President before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $32K | No $29K | — | — |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $7.0K | No $38K | — | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? same side · consensus No | — | No $3.6K | No $1.4K | — |