PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
supersmard0x930261a4741cfa67169bb254d05fd225a7286924ticklepickles444BoomLaLa
Record (consensus markets)62% (37–23, n=60)70% (77–33, n=110)89% (8–1, n=9)66% (5377–2808, n=8185)
Consensus PnL$80K$11K$25K$644K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #368was PM monthly #963PM monthly #666PM monthly #711
Sides with the consensus39% (7 of 18 open)no open consensus position100% (1 of 1 open)50% (3 of 6 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settlednone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won73% of 60 at avg 44¢, ROI +18%66% of 87 at avg 65¢, ROI +5%100% of 9 at avg 66¢, ROI +9%85% of 4167 at avg 58¢, ROI +18%
Entries under 30¢32% (won 37% of 19)2% (won 50% of 2)0%7% (won 34% of 290)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 73% of 15)8% (won 43% of 7)11% (won 100% of 1)35% (won 78% of 1465)
Entries 50–70¢32% (won 100% of 19)48% (won 69% of 42)33% (won 100% of 3)27% (won 92% of 1130)
Entries 70¢ and up12% (won 100% of 7)41% (won 67% of 36)56% (won 100% of 5)31% (won 98% of 1282)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.