Known as jizzbucket57 since Nov 6 2026 · Previously known as: jizzbucket57 (Oct 3 – Nov 6 2026)
Consensus PnL $218K · win rate 50% (1152–1168, n=2320) · was PM monthly #398 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$218.2K
Record
1152W / 1168L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 2320 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1165
Source
PM monthly #398
Record (90 d)
82/84 · 98%
Trades
6,589
Markets
2,387
Volume
$9.6M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $3 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (90% of 20)
- Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Yes $2 · now 2¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,175 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 52¢- NBA
+49 pts
side won 99% of 261 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- NHL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 147 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 97% of 267 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 93% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 98% of 403)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 98% of 647)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 85)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.