Known as 196874353278 since Nov 9 2026 · Previously known as: 19674353278 (Nov 9 2026), 196874353278 (Nov 2 – Nov 9 2026)
Consensus PnL $53K · win rate 38% (320–517, n=837) · PM monthly #377 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$52.9K
Record
320W / 517L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 837 settled
Batting Avg
56.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1567
Source
PM monthly #377
Record (90 d)
364/524 · 69%
Trades
17,677
Markets
1,258
Volume
$470.4K
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Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 27 on the consensus side (59%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 9?No $1.6K · now 95¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 9?No $1.6K · now 100¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9?Down $1.6K · now 93¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 9?No $1.5K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Ethereum Up or Down on November 9?Down $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November?Yes $1.4K · now 76¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 9?No $1.4K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 9?Yes $1.2K · now 62¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (75% of 6)
Specialties
231 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 56¢- Finance
+32 pts
side won 77% of 52 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +26%
- Crypto
+22 pts
side won 81% of 179 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 46% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 89% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 83% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 108)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.