Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 93¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 100%
$14.9K
$3.8K
65.2¢ → 92.5¢
+42% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $8.6K | $12.2K | +$3.5K | 69% 5130-2295 (7425) |
19 196874353278 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$93.4 | 39% 502-771 (1273) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 65¢ | $605.56 | $719.85 | +$114.28 | 54% 4272-3595 (7867) |
AL almach | Downavg 48¢ | $123.31 | $175.01 | +$33.53 | 54% 50944-42533 (93477) |
BO bosona | Downavg 48¢ | $126.4 | $172.25 | +$29.65 | 55% 52502-42904 (95406) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 48¢ | $74.7 | $125.92 | +$28.55 | 55% 53116-43523 (96639) |
Invested
$8,621.47
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
69%
5130-2295 (7425)
Invested
$1,577.94
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$93.4
Record
39%
502-771 (1273)
Invested
$605.56
Value
$719.85
PnL
+$114.28
Record
54%
4272-3595 (7867)
Invested
$123.31
Value
$175.01
PnL
+$33.53
Record
54%
50944-42533 (93477)
Invested
$126.4
Value
$172.25
PnL
+$29.65
Record
55%
52502-42904 (95406)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$125.92
PnL
+$28.55
Record
55%
53116-43523 (96639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.