Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 68% (1469–698, n=2167) · PM monthly #974 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$33.7K
Record
1469W / 698L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 2167 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#593
Source
PM monthly #974
Record (90 d)
532/556 · 96%
Trades
1,013
Markets
2,272
Volume
$522.7K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Yes $647 · now 100¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (54% of 46)
Specialties
1,360 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 44¢- Weather
+31 pts
side won 75% of 1295 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +17%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 68% of 19 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 32% of 31 at an average 40¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 39%(won 45% of 533)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 84% of 233)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 93% of 268)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 96% of 326)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.