Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 34% (285–558, n=843) · PM monthly #890 · holds 117 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.6K
Record
285W / 558L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 843 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1570
Source
PM monthly #890
Record (90 d)
4/162 · 2%
Trades
1,584
Markets
1,193
Volume
$680.5K
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Top consensus positions
117 in listed consensus markets · 71 of 117 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $416 · now 6¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $245 · now 13¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $234 · now 14¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $122 · now 22¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (90% of 21)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $107 · now 14¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $105 · now 7¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $95 · now 24¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $77 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
658 settled consensus markets · held side won 3% at an average entry of 2¢- Esports
+9 pts
side won 12% of 25 · avg entry 3¢
ROI 0%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 5% of 73 · avg entry 1¢
ROI +1%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 4% of 141 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Golf — held side won 0% of 88 at an average 0¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 99%(won 3% of 654)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 0% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.