No settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #969 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #969
Record (90 d)
2/2 · 100%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Specialties
249 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 65¢- Mentions
+15 pts
side won 79% of 42 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +21%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 63% of 68 · avg entry 59¢
ROI −2%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 76% of 38 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 61% of 28 at an average 61¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 19% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 51% of 37)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 74% of 43)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 90% of 133)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.