Consensus PnL -$148K · win rate 39% (55–86, n=141) · was PM monthly #983 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-148.1K
Record
55W / 86L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 141 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1523
Source
PM monthly #983
Record (90 d)
7/8 · 88%
Trades
0
Markets
147
Volume
$542.4K
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Specialties
99 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+16 pts
side won 78% of 36 · avg entry 62¢
ROI −3%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 30¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 49% of 45 at an average 49¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 0% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 43% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 78% of 51)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 73% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.