Consensus PnL -$1.1M · win rate 53% (275–243, n=518) · PM monthly #579 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.1M
Record
275W / 243L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 518 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1068
Source
PM monthly #579
Record (90 d)
11/13 · 85%
Trades
617
Markets
618
Volume
$25.5M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes $717 · now 2¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
580 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 49¢- College Football
+33 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +32%
- Tennis
+18 pts
side won 66% of 32 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +16%
- College Basketball
+13 pts
side won 62% of 58 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 50% of 123 at an average 52¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 24% of 58)
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 51% of 271)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 60% of 187)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 77% of 64)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.