Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 97% (31–1, n=32) · PM monthly #770 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$23.1K
Record
31W / 1L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 32 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#113
Source
PM monthly #770
Record (90 d)
28/28 · 100%
Trades
89
Markets
50
Volume
$91.3K
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Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 13 on the consensus side (92%)- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?No $10K · now 92¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (51% of 46)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.7K · now 44¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $2.7K · now 66¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (87% of 64)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $2.6K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (76% of 40)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $2.6K · now 77¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (56% of 42)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $2.3K · now 67¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (45% of 71)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 59¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (59% of 34)
- Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 72¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 13)
Specialties
27 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 72¢- Elections
+38 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +33%
- Geopolitics
+16 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 100% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.