US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$2.5
78.5¢ → 81¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-25 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Noavg 78¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$30 | 58% 826-600 (1426) |
 GollumGekkoCTR | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $672.71 | $640.83 | -$31.88 | 69% 2061-935 (2996) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 83¢ | $171.05 | $136.3 | +$1.25 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $162.7 | $102.15 | +$4.8 | 39% 9-14 (23) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85¢ | $87.35 | $81.65 | -$5.7 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10¢ | $10 | $20.5 | +$10.5 | |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 81¢ | $101.14 | $99.27 | -$1.87 | 36% 2030-3623 (5653) |
classifiedInvested
$1,560
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$30
Record
58%
826-600 (1426)
GollumGekkoCTRInvested
$672.71
Value
$640.83
PnL
-$31.88
Record
69%
2061-935 (2996)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$171.05
Value
$136.3
PnL
+$1.25
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$162.7
Value
$102.15
PnL
+$4.8
Record
39%
9-14 (23)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.14
Value
$99.27
PnL
-$1.87
Record
36%
2030-3623 (5653)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.