Consensus PnL -$23K · win rate 65% (283–153, n=436) · PM monthly #797 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-22.8K
Record
283W / 153L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 436 settled
Batting Avg
37.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#627
Source
PM monthly #797
Record (90 d)
118/178 · 66%
Trades
172
Markets
511
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $22K · now 99¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 58)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $186 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
Specialties
422 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 63¢- College Football
+10 pts
side won 63% of 57 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +3%
- Finance
+8 pts
side won 73% of 48 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 57% of 14 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 50% of 18 at an average 68¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 11% of 57)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 42% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 63% of 132)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 86% of 190)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.