Consensus PnL $169K · win rate 67% (426–207, n=633) · PM monthly #407 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$169.1K
Record
426W / 207L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 633 settled
Batting Avg
47.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#568
Source
PM monthly #407
Record (90 d)
88/100 · 88%
Trades
1,129
Markets
735
Volume
$3.6M
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Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $10K · now 34¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes $5.0K · now 20¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes $1.2K · now 22¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (61% of 31)
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $530 · now 21¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (53% of 17)
- RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Yes $369 · now 20¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $172 · now 12¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes $87 · now 6¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes $3 · now 36¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
492 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 71¢- Elections
+3 pts
side won 65% of 131 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+8 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +9%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +20%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 93% of 89 at an average 95¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 11% of 65)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 36% of 53)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 61% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 90% of 317)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.