Consensus PnL $113K · win rate 67% (333–162, n=495) · PM monthly #387 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$112.8K
Record
333W / 162L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 495 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#594
Source
PM monthly #387
Record (90 d)
48/59 · 81%
Trades
0
Markets
687
Volume
$3.1M
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 16 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.7K · now 26¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (73% of 43)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.7K · now 18¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes $972 · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes $919 · now 19¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (68% of 22)
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $850 · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (50% of 21)
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $480 · now 17¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Yes $443 · now 25¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $310 · now 39¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
446 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 70¢- NHL
+8 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 93% of 87 at an average 95¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 10% of 62)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 32% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 61% of 51)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 89% of 283)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.