Consensus PnL -$109K · win rate 81% (629–146, n=775) · PM monthly #780 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-109.2K
Record
629W / 146L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 775 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#298
Source
PM monthly #780
Record (90 d)
382/386 · 99%
Trades
0
Markets
882
Volume
$7.2M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (57% of 44)
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Magic $115 · now 25¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Warriors)
Specialties
447 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 89¢- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +51%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 100% of 358 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 96¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 98% of 40)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 100% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 100% of 359)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.