Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
💧
Weak
No
5
No 60%
$1.5K
-$25.04
95.4¢ → 98.2¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Late Entry
Medium
Score 55/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $864.39 | $869.79 | +$3.26 | 53% 1781-1607 (3388) |
NL nlpredmtt | Noavg 90¢ | $514.39 | $515.3 | +$0.41 | 55% 146-120 (266) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $69.12 | $69.12 | -$0.2 | 83% 1412-280 (1692) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.12 | $25.38 | -$23.49 | 42% 1210-1656 (2866) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $19.56 | $20.36 | -$5.02 | 17% 3034-14639 (17673) |
Invested
$864.39
Value
$869.79
PnL
+$3.26
Record
53%
1781-1607 (3388)
Invested
$514.39
Value
$515.3
PnL
+$0.41
Record
55%
146-120 (266)
Invested
$69.12
Value
$69.12
PnL
-$0.2
Record
83%
1412-280 (1692)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$25.38
PnL
-$23.49
Record
42%
1210-1656 (2866)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$19.56
Value
$20.36
PnL
-$5.02
Record
17%
3034-14639 (17673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.