Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.9K
$52.15
90.5¢ → 94¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NL nlpredmtt | Noavg 89.3¢ | $3.6K | $1.5K | +$48.84 | 55% 146-120 (266) |
0F 0F62 | Noavg 97¢ | $194 | $186.8 | -$4.3 | 53% 1781-1607 (3388) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $94.28 | $94.28 | +$0 | 47% 2632-2992 (5624) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $28.28 | $53.02 | +$8.13 | 17% 3034-14640 (17674) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $47.95 | $46.7 | -$0.52 | 83% 1413-280 (1693) |
Invested
$3,591.95
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$48.84
Record
55%
146-120 (266)
Invested
$194
Value
$186.8
PnL
-$4.3
Record
53%
1781-1607 (3388)
Invested
$94.28
Value
$94.28
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2632-2992 (5624)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$28.28
Value
$53.02
PnL
+$8.13
Record
17%
3034-14640 (17674)
Invested
$47.95
Value
$46.7
PnL
-$0.52
Record
83%
1413-280 (1693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.