XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (33%) · Down at 100¢ · $416 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 33%

Total Value

$416.16

Combined PnL

$58.74

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$382.24

Total Shares384

Combined PnL+$65.03

Up4 traders

Total Value$33.92

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$6.29

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67.8¢	$258.36	$302.4	+$50.04	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 78.7¢	$64.85	$79.84	+$14.99	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$16.06	$16.73	+$0.67	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$15.25	$9.25	-$6	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.9	$5	+$2.1	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 11.9¢	$6	$2.94	-$3.06	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$258.36

Value

$302.4

PnL

+$50.04

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$64.85

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$14.99

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.73

PnL

+$0.67

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$6

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

PnL

+$2.1

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$3.06

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.