Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $251 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$251.36

Combined PnL

$9.55

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$234.86

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$0.83

Down3 traders

Total Value$16.5

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$8.71

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 90.7¢	$149.68	$126.86	-$22.83	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 37.3¢	$76.74	$103	+$26.26	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 22.2¢	$3.45	$7.76	+$4.31	—
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 20.7¢	$3.1	$7.5	+$4.4	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$7.6	$5	-$2.6	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.24	$1.24	+$0.01	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$149.68

Value

$126.86

PnL

-$22.83

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$76.74

Value

$103

PnL

+$26.26

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$3.45

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$4.31

Record

—

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$3.1

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$4.4

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$2.6

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.