Sopo: Alice Tubello vs Polona Hercog

21 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (68%) · Polona Hercog at 85¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 19

Alice Tubello16¢Polona Hercog84¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 68%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 84.5¢

+9% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

21 of 31 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alice Tubello16%

Polona Hercog85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog21 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares42,440

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Alice Tubello10 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares41,105

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Polona Hercog — 68%Alice Tubello — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPolona Hercog 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPolona Hercog 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Polona Hercog 73% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Polona Hercogavg 75.6¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	+$157.98	50% 3542-3501 (7043)
C6 C63AMG	Polona Hercogavg 92¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$23.07	— 7-3 (10)
LI Limousin	Polona Hercogavg 70.9¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$242.1	32% 534-1112 (1646)
VE Venusian	Polona Hercogavg 82.1¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$175.62	32% 538-1128 (1666)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Alice Tubelloavg 26¢	$5.1K	$3.3K	$-1.8K	51% 3772-3571 (7343)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Polona Hercogavg 87.4¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$4.26	86% 24-4 (28)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Polona Hercogavg 59.4¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$806.19	48% 342-378 (720)
YE yesmate	Polona Hercogavg 81¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$158.08	52% 179-165 (344)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Polona Hercogavg 74.7¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$100.53	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 21.6¢	$4.4K	$2.3K	+$1.9K	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 40.3¢	$562.52	$1.2K	+$2.7K
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 21.6¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$776.78
TH thirdt1me	Polona Hercogavg 84.5¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	+$257.6	45% 158-195 (353)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 27¢	$5.9K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 80.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$187.79	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 80.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$97.17
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 9.9¢	$326.07	$413.56	+$90.62
NO NotJump	Polona Hercogavg 56.1¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$165.91	54% 455-382 (837)
38 38791873984189	Polona Hercogavg 80¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	+$255.46	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 44.9¢	$2.2K	$966.57	-$969.04	42% 291-405 (696)
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 44.9¢	$1.6K	$486.46	$-1.1K
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 72.6¢	$405.17	$480.11	+$106.29
BA babybells	Polona Hercogavg 81.2¢	$2.7K	$672.36	+$125.47	27% 159-430 (589)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 22.4¢	$1.1K	$663.53	-$399.96	33% 558-1111 (1669)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 12.8¢	$345.53	$374.69	+$31.72	30% 173-399 (572)
1L 1lovejump	Polona Hercogavg 83¢	$1.3K	$358.67	+$99.92	36% 95-169 (264)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 23.4¢	$283.88	$227.02	-$41.66	50% 141-139 (280)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 62.6¢	$95.08	$132.99	+$40.6
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 23.4¢	$176.28	$94.03	-$82.25
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Polona Hercogavg 79.2¢	$203.71	$211.94	+$15.27	41% 257-370 (627)
OJ ojgCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 9.5¢	$138.28	$203.61	+$65.32	45% 166-202 (368)
PA pauleta23	Polona Hercogavg 60.1¢	$100	$143.19	+$43.19	34% 280-540 (820)
ES esticamosCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 32¢	$3.1K	$125.86	-$289.68	30% 8-19 (27)

6512395314597884

Polona Hercog

Invested

$10,578.21

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$157.98

Record

50%

3542-3501 (7043)

C63AMG

Polona Hercog

Invested

$4,244.91

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$23.07

Record

—

7-3 (10)

Limousin

Polona Hercog

Invested

$3,877.44

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$242.1

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Venusian

Polona Hercog

Invested

$3,686.02

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$175.62

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$5,085.37

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

3772-3571 (7343)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Polona Hercog

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$4.26

Record

86%

24-4 (28)

CandleHammerDrums

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,032.67

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$806.19

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

yesmate

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,546.88

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$158.08

Record

52%

179-165 (344)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,246.84

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$100.53

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$4,367.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$562.5240.3¢+$2.7K

Alice Tubello$1,842.4421.6¢-$776.78

thirdt1me

Polona Hercog

Invested

$4,090.52

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$257.6

Record

45%

158-195 (353)

LightParadoxCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$5,935.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,400.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$187.79

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$1,067.9980.2¢+$97.17

Alice Tubello$326.079.9¢+$90.62

NotJump

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,093.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$165.91

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

38791873984189

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,981.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$255.46

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$2,185.22

Value

$966.57

PnL

-$969.04

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

Both legs:

Alice Tubello$1,561.7944.9¢$-1.1K

Polona Hercog$405.1772.6¢+$106.29

babybells

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2,675.19

Value

$672.36

PnL

+$125.47

Record

27%

159-430 (589)

MadridTimeCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,063.48

Value

$663.53

PnL

-$399.96

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

thestingsnakeCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$345.53

Value

$374.69

PnL

+$31.72

Record

30%

173-399 (572)

1lovejump

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,286.88

Value

$358.67

PnL

+$99.92

Record

36%

95-169 (264)

EulhunterARB<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$283.88

Value

$227.02

PnL

-$41.66

Record

50%

141-139 (280)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$95.0862.6¢+$40.6

Alice Tubello$176.2823.4¢-$82.25

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Polona Hercog

Invested

$203.71

Value

$211.94

PnL

+$15.27

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

ojgCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$138.28

Value

$203.61

PnL

+$65.32

Record

45%

166-202 (368)

pauleta23

Polona Hercog

Invested

$100

Value

$143.19

PnL

+$43.19

Record

34%

280-540 (820)

esticamosCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$3,124.88

Value

$125.86

PnL

-$289.68

Record

30%

8-19 (27)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

21 of 31 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPolona Hercog 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPolona Hercog 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Polona Hercog 73% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.