Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Maria Sakkari vs Alexandra Eala
13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (52%) · Alexandra Eala at 59¢ · $489K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Alexandra Eala
25
Alexandra Eala 52%
14 arb excluded
$488.6K
$9.4K
61.6¢ → 58.5¢
-5% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexandra Eala at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 25 top traders (52%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 63¢ | $160.6K | $151.4K | $-9.2K | 42% 8117-11313 (19430) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 63¢ | $95.8K | $86.0K | $-9.9K | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 43.1¢ | $64.8K | $65.4K | +$629.4 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.8¢ | $134.0K | $132.4K | $-1.6K | 53% 62265-54490 (116755) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.8¢ | $77.0K | $66.8K | $-10.2K | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 39.5¢ | $57.0K | $65.6K | +$8.6K | |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 75.4¢ | $60.5K | $51.4K | $-9.0K | 53% 6325-5608 (11933) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 75.4¢ | $44.0K | $35.3K | $-8.7K | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 40.4¢ | $16.4K | $16.1K | -$356.49 | |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 57.5¢ | $22.0K | $24.3K | +$2.2K | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 57.5¢ | $15.1K | $15.4K | +$260.86 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 32.4¢ | $6.9K | $8.9K | +$2.0K | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 68.6¢ | $17.9K | $16.2K | $-1.7K | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 68.6¢ | $11.7K | $9.6K | $-2.1K | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 40.9¢ | $6.2K | $6.6K | +$394.83 | |
MA MadridTime | Alexandra Ealaavg 69.6¢ | $18.4K | $15.3K | $-3.2K | 48% 1742-1871 (3613) |
LI LightParadox | Alexandra Ealaavg 68.7¢ | $11.4K | $11.1K | -$386.21 | 49% 1765-1864 (3629) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Alexandra Ealaavg 48.2¢ | $11.4K | $10.9K | -$530.22 | 46% 1775-2086 (3861) |
65 6512395314597884 | Alexandra Ealaavg 64.6¢ | $40.4K | $9.9K | $-3.7K | 51% 4999-4865 (9864) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 64.3¢ | $9.7K | $9.7K | +$10.12 | 52% 14644-13309 (27953) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 64.3¢ | $6.1K | $6.3K | +$208.48 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 35.4¢ | $3.6K | $3.4K | -$198.36 | |
KK KkunnCTR | Maria Sakkariavg 29.4¢ | $13.7K | $7.0K | +$6.2K | 42% 253-343 (596) |
AP AppleTiimeCTR | Maria Sakkariavg 33.3¢ | $5.1K | $6.9K | +$1.8K | 49% 206-217 (423) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 64.2¢ | $5.5K | $5.4K | -$61.83 | 49% 1807-1885 (3692) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 64.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$16.36 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 36.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$78.19 | |
EU EulhunterARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.4¢ | $5.6K | $5.4K | -$214.48 | 54% 6320-5389 (11709) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.4¢ | $4.2K | $3.7K | -$533.91 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 37¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$319.43 | |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Maria Sakkariavg 45.4¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$45.57 | 46% 451-536 (987) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Maria Sakkariavg 41.8¢ | $7.4K | $3.6K | -$155.52 | 48% 62365-67229 (129594) |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 41.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$2.73 | |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 65.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$152.79 | |
NS NS13CTR | Maria Sakkariavg 38.1¢ | $140.1K | $2.9K | +$9.8K | 52% 440-406 (846) |
FY fydi | Alexandra Ealaavg 54.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$20 | 50% 342-340 (682) |
TH thestingsnake | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.6¢ | $4.3K | $2.1K | +$11.1 | 60% 4504-3004 (7508) |
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.5¢ | $5.7K | $2.1K | +$147.31 | 53% 825-731 (1556) |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 36.6¢ | $998.06 | $1.2K | +$317.86 | |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 62.5¢ | $1.0K | $945.2 | -$170.55 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 53.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$40.37 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 53.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$2.13 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 46¢ | $977.49 | $934.99 | -$42.5 | |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Alexandra Ealaavg 53¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$58.64 | 53% 667-585 (1252) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Alexandra Ealaavg 69.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$400.47 | 51% 2054-1984 (4038) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 53.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$20.2 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
| └ Alexandra Eala leg | Alexandra Ealaavg 53.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$34 | |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 46¢ | $317.49 | $303.69 | -$13.8 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Alexandra Ealaavg 54.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$57.77 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
Invested
$160,614.98
Value
$151.4K
PnL
$-9.2K
Record
42%
8117-11313 (19430)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$134,040.85
Value
$132.4K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
53%
62265-54490 (116755)
Both legs:
Invested
$60,453.93
Value
$51.4K
PnL
$-9.0K
Record
53%
6325-5608 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$22,042.57
Value
$24.3K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Both legs:
Invested
$17,875.38
Value
$16.2K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Both legs:
Invested
$18,439.19
Value
$15.3K
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
48%
1742-1871 (3613)
Invested
$11,441.44
Value
$11.1K
PnL
-$386.21
Record
49%
1765-1864 (3629)
Invested
$11,391.96
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$530.22
Record
46%
1775-2086 (3861)
Invested
$40,394.58
Value
$9.9K
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
51%
4999-4865 (9864)
Invested
$9,731.33
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$10.12
Record
52%
14644-13309 (27953)
Both legs:
Invested
$13,659.28
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$6.2K
Record
42%
253-343 (596)
Invested
$5,077.33
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
49%
206-217 (423)
Invested
$5,501.41
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$61.83
Record
49%
1807-1885 (3692)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,599.19
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$214.48
Record
54%
6320-5389 (11709)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,995.56
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$45.57
Record
46%
451-536 (987)
Invested
$7,380.58
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$155.52
Record
48%
62365-67229 (129594)
Both legs:
Invested
$140,145.26
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$9.8K
Record
52%
440-406 (846)
Invested
$2,179.98
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$20
Record
50%
342-340 (682)
Invested
$4,328.1
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$11.1
Record
60%
4504-3004 (7508)
Invested
$5,668.83
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$147.31
Record
53%
825-731 (1556)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,112.24
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$40.37
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,553.9
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$58.64
Record
53%
667-585 (1252)
Invested
$1,967.96
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$400.47
Record
51%
2054-1984 (4038)
Invested
$1,452.24
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$20.2
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,304.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$57.77
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Limousin
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MadridTime
Alexandra Eala — $15.3K
LightParadox
Alexandra Eala — $11.1K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Alexandra Eala — $10.9K
6512395314597884
Alexandra Eala — $9.9K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded