Cali: Rebeka Masarova vs Alice Tubello

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (69%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Rebeka Masarova<1¢Alice Tubello>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alice Tubello

Consensus Traders

Alice Tubello 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

-$817.44

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rebeka Masarova0%

Alice Tubello100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alice Tubello18 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares13,858

Combined PnL-$804.62

Rebeka Masarova8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,065

Combined PnL-$12.82

Alice Tubello — 69%Rebeka Masarova — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Alice Tubelloavg 81.5¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	-$609.32	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
FL Flaznorp	Alice Tubelloavg 89.9¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$84.7	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 50.6¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$130.95	50% 512-509 (1021)
LI LightParadox	Alice Tubelloavg 86.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$63.43	54% 906-787 (1693)
HI hi774c	Alice Tubelloavg 49¢	$1.0K	$995.63	-$42.37	50% 4917-4837 (9754)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Alice Tubelloavg 71.5¢	$1.0K	$982.99	-$37.55	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
38 38791873984189	Alice Tubelloavg 76.8¢	$886.4	$549.99	-$116.77	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
1L 1lovejump	Alice Tubelloavg 73.9¢	$542.24	$451.81	+$26.83	52% 702-642 (1344)
VE Venusian	Alice Tubelloavg 57.2¢	$320.34	$340.19	+$19.86	53% 916-813 (1729)
LI Limousin	Alice Tubelloavg 96.2¢	$316.67	$299.4	-$17.27	56% 942-736 (1678)
TH thestingsnake	Alice Tubelloavg 86.2¢	$340.43	$288.7	+$0.02	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 15.6¢	$174.31	$199.18	+$24.87	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 59.8¢	$74.85	$106.95	+$32.1
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 15.6¢	$99.46	$92.23	-$7.24
BL blketCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 52.2¢	$204.9	$198.04	-$6.86	68% 614-284 (898)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Alice Tubelloavg 49¢	$157.94	$151.5	-$6.45	50% 2644-2635 (5279)
fyrsken	Alice Tubelloavg 47¢	$141	$141	-$1.5	49% 310-329 (639)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alice Tubelloavg 82.3¢	$101.07	$96.85	-$4.22	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 96¢	$75.08	$41.03	-$34.05	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 49.3¢	$28.09	$26.79	-$1.58	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
MA MadridTime<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 48.2¢	$24.61	$23.97	-$0.64	52% 830-771 (1601)
RN1CTR<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 42.7¢	$16.54	$15.31	-$1.23	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 51¢	$10	$9.21	-$0.78	74% 2370-822 (3192)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 36¢	$7.21	$6.71	-$0.5	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 55.2¢	$5.52	$5.35	-$0.17	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
NO NotJumpCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 14¢	$140	$5	-$135	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 86.6¢	$4.33	$4.23	-$0.11	57% 18986-14047 (33033)

6512395314597884

Alice Tubello

Invested

$4,214.58

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$609.32

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

Flaznorp

Alice Tubello

Invested

$2,871.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$84.7

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$2,321.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$130.95

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

LightParadox

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,330.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$63.43

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

hi774c

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,038

Value

$995.63

PnL

-$42.37

Record

50%

4917-4837 (9754)

CandleHammerDrums

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,020.54

Value

$982.99

PnL

-$37.55

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

38791873984189

Alice Tubello

Invested

$886.4

Value

$549.99

PnL

-$116.77

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

1lovejump

Alice Tubello

Invested

$542.24

Value

$451.81

PnL

+$26.83

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

Venusian

Alice Tubello

Invested

$320.34

Value

$340.19

PnL

+$19.86

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Limousin

Alice Tubello

Invested

$316.67

Value

$299.4

PnL

-$17.27

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

thestingsnake

Alice Tubello

Invested

$340.43

Value

$288.7

PnL

+$0.02

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$174.31

Value

$199.18

PnL

+$24.87

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Both legs:

Alice Tubello$74.8559.8¢+$32.1

Rebeka Masarova$99.4615.6¢-$7.24

blketCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$204.9

Value

$198.04

PnL

-$6.86

Record

68%

614-284 (898)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Alice Tubello

Invested

$157.94

Value

$151.5

PnL

-$6.45

Record

50%

2644-2635 (5279)

fyrsken

Alice Tubello

Invested

$141

Value

$141

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alice Tubello

Invested

$101.07

Value

$96.85

PnL

-$4.22

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Eulhunter<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$75.08

Value

$41.03

PnL

-$34.05

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$28.09

Value

$26.79

PnL

-$1.58

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

MadridTime<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$24.61

Value

$23.97

PnL

-$0.64

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

RN1CTR<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$16.54

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$10

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.78

Record

74%

2370-822 (3192)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$7.21

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

NotJumpCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$140

Value

PnL

-$135

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alice Tubello wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.