Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Claire Liu (61%) · Claire Liu at 89¢ · $90K held · ends Nov 11

Claire Liu89¢Katie Boulter11¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Claire Liu

Consensus Traders

Claire Liu 61%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.8K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 88.5¢

+31% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralClaire Liu at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Claire Liu

14 of 23 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Claire Liu89%

Katie Boulter12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Claire Liu14 traders

Total Value$72.8K

Total Shares83,684

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Katie Boulter9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares21,599

Combined PnL+$225.56

Claire Liu — 61%Katie Boulter — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Claire Liu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Katie Boulter) and the top 1000 (17 on Claire Liu) disagree here.

whaleKatie Boulter 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpClaire Liu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKatie Boulter 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKatie Boulter 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Claire Liu 53% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Claire Liuavg 68.3¢	$52.3K	$45.0K	$-7.4K	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Claire Liuavg 66¢	$10.9K	$11.3K	+$412.51	55% 512-424 (936)
65 6512395314597884	Claire Liuavg 75¢	$8.2K	$7.7K	-$462.71	51% 4564-4425 (8989)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Katie Boulteravg 27.2¢	$3.9K	$4.7K	+$717.65	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Claire Liuavg 54.9¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$160.41	52% 14207-12987 (27194)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Katie Boulteravg 30.3¢	$4.5K	$3.3K	$-1.1K	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
└ Katie Boulter leg	Katie Boulteravg 30.3¢	$3.6K	$2.1K	$-1.5K
└ Claire Liu leg	Claire Liuavg 56.3¢	$871.52	$1.3K	+$406.27
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Katie Boulteravg 57.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$100.44	51% 1779-1697 (3476)
38 38791873984189	Claire Liuavg 69.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$582.32	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
TH thestingsnake	Claire Liuavg 61.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	+$380.34	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Claire Liuavg 64.5¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$349.79	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
└ Claire Liu leg	Claire Liuavg 64.5¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$249.73
└ Katie Boulter leg	Katie Boulteravg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$507.51	-$599.52
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Katie Boulteravg 44¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	-$121.74	52% 730-668 (1398)
└ Claire Liu leg	Claire Liuavg 56.5¢	$710.54	$1.0K	+$448.17
└ Katie Boulter leg	Katie Boulteravg 44¢	$748.17	$331.75	-$569.91
MA MadridTimeCTR	Katie Boulteravg 39.9¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$264.13	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Claire Liuavg 41.3¢	$599.38	$789.47	+$190.1	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
└ Claire Liu leg	Claire Liuavg 41.3¢	$325.66	$539.8	+$214.14
└ Katie Boulter leg	Katie Boulteravg 34.5¢	$273.72	$249.68	-$24.04
VE VenusianARB<$100	Katie Boulteravg 17.9¢	$718.68	$785.9	+$67.22	52% 1149-1066 (2215)
└ Claire Liu leg	Claire Liuavg 45¢	$244.33	$480.78	+$236.45
└ Katie Boulter leg	Katie Boulteravg 17.9¢	$474.35	$305.12	-$169.23
DA darkumbreon88	Claire Liuavg 42¢	$188.86	$202.35	+$13.49	64% 1885-1044 (2929)
GC GC-P	Claire Liuavg 42¢	$112.84	$120.9	+$8.06	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Katie Boulteravg 22.9¢	$546.59	$112.18	-$90.85	66% 618-324 (942)
CI cigarettes<$100	Claire Liuavg 69¢	$69	$88.5	+$19.5	53% 22252-19379 (41631)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100	Katie Boulteravg 32.2¢	$86	$76	-$10	60% 138-91 (229)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Katie Boulteravg 59.2¢	$67.28	$62.49	-$4.79	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Katie Boulteravg 58.5¢	$46.2	$46.2	+$0	56% 7694-6169 (13863)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Claire Liuavg 40.7¢	$38.88	$42.97	+$4.09	61% 14014-9029 (23043)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Katie Boulteravg 58.7¢	$51.15	$29.25	-$21.9	57% 19055-14098 (33153)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Claire Liuavg 40¢	$10.67	$17.73	+$7.07	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Claire Liuavg 68¢	$6.8	$6.85	+$0.05	82% 6948-1498 (8446)

RN1

Claire Liu

Invested

$52,318.1

Value

$45.0K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Claire Liu

Invested

$10,890.32

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$412.51

Record

55%

512-424 (936)

6512395314597884

Claire Liu

Invested

$8,182.64

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$462.71

Record

51%

4564-4425 (8989)

LightParadoxCTR

Katie Boulter

Invested

$3,945.21

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$717.65

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Claire Liu

Invested

$3,774.87

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$160.41

Record

52%

14207-12987 (27194)

LimousinARB<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$4,457.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

Both legs:

Katie Boulter$3,586.2630.3¢$-1.5K

Claire Liu$871.5256.3¢+$406.27

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Katie Boulter

Invested

$2,575.44

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$100.44

Record

51%

1779-1697 (3476)

38791873984189

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,251.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$582.32

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

thestingsnake

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,204.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$380.34

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,349.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$349.79

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

Both legs:

Claire Liu$1,242.6564.5¢+$249.73

Katie Boulter$1,107.0349.1¢-$599.52

1lovejumpARB<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$3,421.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$121.74

Record

52%

730-668 (1398)

Both legs:

Claire Liu$710.5456.5¢+$448.17

Katie Boulter$748.1744¢-$569.91

MadridTimeCTR

Katie Boulter

Invested

$1,595.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$264.13

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

EulhunterARB<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$599.38

Value

$789.47

PnL

+$190.1

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

Both legs:

Claire Liu$325.6641.3¢+$214.14

Katie Boulter$273.7234.5¢-$24.04

VenusianARB<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$718.68

Value

$785.9

PnL

+$67.22

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

Both legs:

Claire Liu$244.3345¢+$236.45

Katie Boulter$474.3517.9¢-$169.23

darkumbreon88

Claire Liu

Invested

$188.86

Value

$202.35

PnL

+$13.49

Record

64%

1885-1044 (2929)

GC-P

Claire Liu

Invested

$112.84

Value

$120.9

PnL

+$8.06

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Katie Boulter

Invested

$546.59

Value

$112.18

PnL

-$90.85

Record

66%

618-324 (942)

cigarettes<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$69

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$19.5

Record

53%

22252-19379 (41631)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$86

Value

$76

PnL

-$10

Record

60%

138-91 (229)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$67.28

Value

$62.49

PnL

-$4.79

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$46.2

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

7694-6169 (13863)

Lilybaeum<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$38.88

Value

$42.97

PnL

+$4.09

Record

61%

14014-9029 (23043)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Katie Boulter

Invested

$51.15

Value

$29.25

PnL

-$21.9

Record

57%

19055-14098 (33153)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$10.67

Value

$17.73

PnL

+$7.07

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Claire Liu

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

82%

6948-1498 (8446)

Research grade

NeutralClaire Liu at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Claire Liu

14 of 23 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Claire Liu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Katie Boulter) and the top 1000 (17 on Claire Liu) disagree here.

whaleKatie Boulter 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpClaire Liu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKatie Boulter 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKatie Boulter 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Claire Liu 53% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Claire Liu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.