Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Aliaksandra Sasnovich (71%) · Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 68¢ · $187K held · ends Nov 11

Talia Gibson33¢Aliaksandra Sasnovich67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Consensus Traders

Aliaksandra Sasnovich 71%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$187.2K

Combined PnL

$-24.7K

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 67.5¢

+4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 68%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Talia Gibson33%

Aliaksandra Sasnovich68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aliaksandra Sasnovich20 traders

Total Value$100.7K

Total Shares139,223

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Talia Gibson8 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares109,995

Combined PnL$-27.7K

Aliaksandra Sasnovich — 71%Talia Gibson — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Talia Gibson) and the top 1000 (25 on Aliaksandra Sasnovich) disagree here.

whaleAliaksandra Sasnovich 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpAliaksandra Sasnovich 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAliaksandra Sasnovich 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedTalia Gibson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Aliaksandra Sasnovich 68% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 63.7¢	$52.0K	$53.6K	+$1.5K	55% 512-424 (936)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 57.2¢	$19.7K	$15.8K	$-3.8K	46% 1376-1620 (2996)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 57.2¢	$15.9K	$10.7K	$-5.2K
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 45¢	$3.7K	$5.1K	+$1.4K
RN1ARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 49.9¢	$12.2K	$15.1K	+$2.8K	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 31.7¢	$4.9K	$7.8K	+$2.9K
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 49.9¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	-$56
LI LimousinARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 59.7¢	$18.3K	$14.1K	$-4.2K	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 59.7¢	$15.6K	$10.0K	$-5.5K
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 41.5¢	$2.7K	$4.0K	+$1.3K
FL Flaznorp	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.9¢	$10.5K	$11.9K	+$1.3K	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
65 6512395314597884	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 60.8¢	$25.3K	$11.6K	+$895.77	51% 4564-4425 (8989)
RO robustmstCTR	Talia Gibsonavg 37.9¢	$37.0K	$11.2K	$-25.8K	48% 115-125 (240)
MO Momo63	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 87¢	$10.2K	$9.8K	-$351.56	93% 943-66 (1009)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 63.7¢	$8.9K	$9.4K	+$478.98	52% 14207-12987 (27194)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 63.7¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$158.39
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 31.4¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$320.59
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 68.7¢	$9.3K	$8.1K	$-1.2K	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 36¢	$2.8K	$6.1K	+$3.3K
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 68.7¢	$6.5K	$2.0K	$-4.5K
VE Venusian	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 66¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$76.9	52% 1149-1066 (2215)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 67.5¢	$5.6K	$3.7K	-$156.38	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 67.5¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$245.92
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 30.2¢	$823.68	$939.77	+$89.53
EU Eulhunter	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 63.8¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$176.1	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.3¢	$4.6K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.3¢	$4.1K	$2.7K	$-1.4K
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 39.5¢	$557.14	$868.01	+$310.87
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 69.5¢	$6.8K	$2.9K	-$131.99	52% 730-668 (1398)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 69.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$133.45
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 34¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$265.44
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 59.2¢	$888.27	$1.3K	+$371.73	51% 1779-1697 (3476)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Talia Gibsonavg 38.1¢	$1.9K	$805.6	$-1.1K	61% 14014-9029 (23043)
OM omnibus-076daa	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 34.1¢	$500.98	$795.34	+$294.35	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
TH thestingsnake	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 66¢	$2.4K	$660.5	$-1.1K	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
VeryLucky888	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 65¢	$661.89	$634.98	-$14.81	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Talia Gibsonavg 35¢	$495	$480	-$15	54% 199-168 (367)
tradecraft	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 89.6¢	$658.02	$468.53	-$189.5	51% 6270-6023 (12293)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Talia Gibsonavg 27.7¢	$308.49	$460.6	+$152.11	47% 10953-12334 (23287)
└ Talia Gibson leg	Talia Gibsonavg 27.7¢	$155.32	$266.05	+$110.73
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 41.3¢	$153.17	$194.55	+$41.38
DA darkumbreon88	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 65¢	$317.32	$410.07	+$92.75	64% 1885-1044 (2929)
DI dips.	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 43.9¢	$365.31	$403.9	+$38.58	47% 10274-11665 (21939)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$52,044.1

Value

$53.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

512-424 (936)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$19,667.73

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

46%

1376-1620 (2996)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$15,945.3857.2¢$-5.2K

Talia Gibson$3,722.3445¢+$1.4K

RN1ARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$12,215.81

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

Both legs:

Talia Gibson$4,878.2631.7¢+$2.9K

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$7,337.5649.9¢-$56

LimousinARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$18,289.02

Value

$14.1K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$15,559.859.7¢$-5.5K

Talia Gibson$2,729.2341.5¢+$1.3K

Flaznorp

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$10,544.01

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

6512395314597884

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$25,290.2

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$895.77

Record

51%

4564-4425 (8989)

robustmstCTR

Talia Gibson

Invested

$37,040.47

Value

$11.2K

PnL

$-25.8K

Record

48%

115-125 (240)

Momo63

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$10,172.09

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$351.56

Record

93%

943-66 (1009)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$8,926.16

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$478.98

Record

52%

14207-12987 (27194)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$5,695.563.7¢+$158.39

Talia Gibson$3,230.6631.4¢+$320.59

MadridTimeARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$9,298.26

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

Both legs:

Talia Gibson$2,785.3236¢+$3.3K

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$6,512.9468.7¢$-4.5K

Venusian

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$5,056.52

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$76.9

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$5,615.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$156.38

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$2,846.6667.5¢-$245.92

Talia Gibson$823.6830.2¢+$89.53

Eulhunter

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$3,464.25

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$176.1

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$4,640.15

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$4,083.0258.3¢$-1.4K

Talia Gibson$557.1439.5¢+$310.87

1lovejumpARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$6,794.51

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$131.99

Record

52%

730-668 (1398)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$1,938.4569.5¢+$133.45

Talia Gibson$1,066.3234¢-$265.44

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$888.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$371.73

Record

51%

1779-1697 (3476)

LilybaeumCTR

Talia Gibson

Invested

$1,920.57

Value

$805.6

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

14014-9029 (23043)

omnibus-076daa

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$500.98

Value

$795.34

PnL

+$294.35

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

thestingsnake

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$2,446.68

Value

$660.5

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

VeryLucky888

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$661.89

Value

$634.98

PnL

-$14.81

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Talia Gibson

Invested

$495

Value

$480

PnL

-$15

Record

54%

199-168 (367)

tradecraft

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$658.02

Value

$468.53

PnL

-$189.5

Record

51%

6270-6023 (12293)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Talia Gibson

Invested

$308.49

Value

$460.6

PnL

+$152.11

Record

47%

10953-12334 (23287)

Both legs:

Talia Gibson$155.3227.7¢+$110.73

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$153.1741.3¢+$41.38

darkumbreon88

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$317.32

Value

$410.07

PnL

+$92.75

Record

64%

1885-1044 (2929)

dips.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$365.31

Value

$403.9

PnL

+$38.58

Record

47%

10274-11665 (21939)

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 68%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Talia Gibson) and the top 1000 (25 on Aliaksandra Sasnovich) disagree here.

whaleAliaksandra Sasnovich 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpAliaksandra Sasnovich 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAliaksandra Sasnovich 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedTalia Gibson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Aliaksandra Sasnovich 68% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.