Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$7.9K
$4.6K
34.1¢ → 100¢
+193% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 32.8¢ | $2.4K | $6.5K | +$4.2K | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 28.1¢ | $260.78 | $668.12 | +$407.34 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 44.9¢ | $593.17 | $614.08 | +$20.92 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $48 | $49.13 | +$1.13 | 37% 960-1662 (2622) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 21.9¢ | $28.04 | $28.74 | +$0.7 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $24.33 | $24.34 | +$0.01 | 99% 337-5 (342) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 29.7¢ | $4.11 | $23.15 | +$19.05 | 35% 440-800 (1240) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 77.1¢ | $3.37 | $3.4 | +$0.04 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $10.29 | $3.24 | -$7.05 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
Invested
$2,355.15
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$260.78
Value
$668.12
PnL
+$407.34
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$593.17
Value
$614.08
PnL
+$20.92
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
Invested
$48
Value
$49.13
PnL
+$1.13
Record
37%
960-1662 (2622)
Invested
$28.04
Value
$28.74
PnL
+$0.7
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$24.33
Value
$24.34
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
337-5 (342)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$23.15
PnL
+$19.05
Record
35%
440-800 (1240)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.37
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.04
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
Invested
$10.29
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$7.05
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.