Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $74 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$74.44

Combined PnL

-$1.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$73.7

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.74

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$1.74

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$32.98	$32.89	-$0.09	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.39	$29.88	-$0.09	33% 220-451 (671)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.96	$10.93	-$0.03	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$11.34	$0.38	-$0.31	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.24	+$0.12	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.31	$0.04	-$0.27	12% 20-144 (164)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.27	$0.04	-$0.23	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.26	$0.04	-$0.22	16% 22-118 (140)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$29.98	$0.01	-$0.83	28% 1014-2623 (3637)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$32.98

Value

$32.89

PnL

-$0.09

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$30.39

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.09

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.34

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.31

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.27

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.23

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.22

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.98

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.83

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6771.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

6871.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.