Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $51 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$50.74
-$3.72
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $32.69 | $32.32 | -$0.37 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $9.78 | $9.75 | -$0.03 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.08 | $5.05 | -$0.03 | 61% 13978-8791 (22769) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $6.23 | $2.55 | -$3.68 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
35 35066FE58feCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.14 | $0.57 | +$0.43 | 42% 641-882 (1523) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.56 | $0.5 | -$0.06 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
Invested
$32.69
Value
$32.32
PnL
-$0.37
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$9.78
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.03
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.03
Record
61%
13978-8791 (22769)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$3.68
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.57
PnL
+$0.43
Record
42%
641-882 (1523)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.06
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.