Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 21?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 98.7¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,525

Combined PnL+$396.97

No7 traders

Total Value$7.67

Total Shares558

Combined PnL+$701.71

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 97.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$32.04	— 9-10 (19)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 92.8¢	$429.07	$416.88	+$27.72	90% 18-2 (20)
GU guilttrip	Yesavg 19.8¢	$61.15	$272.81	+$218.55	49% 32-33 (65)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$5.67	$84.76	+$79.1	40% 2689-4008 (6697)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 79¢	$172	$28.92	+$39.57	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$49.97	$3.05	-$46.92	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$3.1	$1.3	-$1.8	28% 48-125 (173)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$20.66	$1.17	-$19.49	14% 110-653 (763)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 84.2¢	$252.46	$1.08	-$182.92	29% 348-840 (1188)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$2.03	$0.91	-$1.12	21% 18-66 (84)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 21.1¢	$67.8	$0.13	+$0.35	19% 40-169 (209)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$15.65	$0.02	+$953.59	42% 5253-7309 (12562)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$2,645.39

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$32.04

Record

—

9-10 (19)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$429.07

Value

$416.88

PnL

+$27.72

Record

90%

18-2 (20)

guilttrip

Yes

Invested

$61.15

Value

$272.81

PnL

+$218.55

Record

49%

32-33 (65)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.67

Value

$84.76

PnL

+$79.1

Record

40%

2689-4008 (6697)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$172

Value

$28.92

PnL

+$39.57

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$49.97

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$46.92

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.8

Record

28%

48-125 (173)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$20.66

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$19.49

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$252.46

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$182.92

Record

29%

348-840 (1188)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.12

Record

21%

18-66 (84)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$67.8

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.35

Record

19%

40-169 (209)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$15.65

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$953.59

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.