Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 51¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$15.3K
$3.9K
33.3¢ → 51¢
+53% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
117h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 boyau | Yesavg 35.4¢ | $6.9K | $8.7K | +$1.9K | 44% 239-303 (542) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $2.9K | $4.5K | +$1.6K | 63% 958-570 (1528) |
 clazzy1CTR | Noavg 49.7¢ | $586.06 | $648.99 | +$62.93 | 66% 543-282 (825) |
TE test456y78 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $140.82 | $538.59 | +$267.9 | 41% 143-202 (345) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $418.45 | $537.08 | +$118.63 | 53% 268-242 (510) |
HU hugecaulk | Yesavg 31¢ | $108.37 | $167.79 | +$17.48 | 41% 21-30 (51) |
AL Albert 1953 | Yesavg 35¢ | $132.95 | $137.54 | +$4.58 | 49% 1217-1262 (2479) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $25.07 | $38.55 | +$13.48 | 60% 661-445 (1106) |
19 19674353278<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $16.69 | $17.37 | +$0.68 | 39% 503-771 (1274) |
boyauInvested
$6,872.75
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
44%
239-303 (542)
Invested
$2,874.17
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
63%
958-570 (1528)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$586.06
Value
$648.99
PnL
+$62.93
Record
66%
543-282 (825)
Invested
$140.82
Value
$538.59
PnL
+$267.9
Record
41%
143-202 (345)
Invested
$418.45
Value
$537.08
PnL
+$118.63
Record
53%
268-242 (510)
Invested
$108.37
Value
$167.79
PnL
+$17.48
Record
41%
21-30 (51)
Invested
$132.95
Value
$137.54
PnL
+$4.58
Record
49%
1217-1262 (2479)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$25.07
Value
$38.55
PnL
+$13.48
Record
60%
661-445 (1106)
Invested
$16.69
Value
$17.37
PnL
+$0.68
Record
39%
503-771 (1274)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.