Will Tom Emmer be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$93.63
-$155.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.95 | $29.96 | +$0 | 27% 947-2550 (3497) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.96 | +$0.56 | 25% 90-272 (362) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.98 | $15.98 | +$0 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $8.61 | $8.78 | +$0.16 | 17% 91-447 (538) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $65.58 | $4.92 | -$60.66 | 45% 134-164 (298) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | $3.47 | -$82.1 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.7 | $0.56 | -$13.15 | 30% 2939-6893 (9832) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | $0.03 | -$0.6 | — 3-14 (17) |
Invested
$29.95
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
947-2550 (3497)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.56
Record
25%
90-272 (362)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$15.98
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0.16
Record
17%
91-447 (538)
Invested
$65.58
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$60.66
Record
45%
134-164 (298)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$82.1
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$13.7
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$13.15
Record
30%
2939-6893 (9832)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.6
Record
—
3-14 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.