Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 15, 2027

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Mon, Mar 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$146.96

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 52¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL-$115.71

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,080

Combined PnL-$31.24

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

686h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Yesavg 54.3¢	$572.35	$548.04	-$24.31	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 62.4¢	$409.8	$417.07	-$83.43	54% 366-307 (673)
BU buoysCTR	Noavg 58.9¢	$477.97	$401.65	-$76.32	45% 785-949 (1734)
AU auros2CTR	Noavg 46¢	$322.06	$336.42	+$14.35	26% 6-17 (23)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 41.7¢	$162.17	$188.53	+$28.97	47% 1401-1578 (2979)
bernardbulletin<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$72.17	$64.88	-$7.3	71% 1253-512 (1765)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$43.81	$43.7	-$0.11	14% 9536-61063 (70599)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$32.48	$34.34	+$1.86	48% 5218-5762 (10980)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$18.24	$17.56	-$0.68	22% 1869-6674 (8543)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$572.35

Value

$548.04

PnL

-$24.31

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$409.8

Value

$417.07

PnL

-$83.43

Record

54%

366-307 (673)

buoysCTR

Invested

$477.97

Value

$401.65

PnL

-$76.32

Record

45%

785-949 (1734)

auros2CTR

Invested

$322.06

Value

$336.42

PnL

+$14.35

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$162.17

Value

$188.53

PnL

+$28.97

Record

47%

1401-1578 (2979)

bernardbulletin<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.17

Value

$64.88

PnL

-$7.3

Record

71%

1253-512 (1765)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$43.81

Value

$43.7

PnL

-$0.11

Record

14%

9536-61063 (70599)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$32.48

Value

$34.34

PnL

+$1.86

Record

48%

5218-5762 (10980)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.24

Value

$17.56

PnL

-$0.68

Record

22%

1869-6674 (8543)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

686h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.