Will Tim Cook be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 96¢ · $64K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$63.6K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 95.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$62.3K

Total Shares65,336

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares29,353

Combined PnL+$8.37

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (20 on Yes) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR DrSlips	Noavg 93.5¢	$30.7K	$31.2K	+$486.7	— 7-6 (13)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 93.3¢	$10.4K	$10.5K	+$191.31	— 3-5 (8)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 95¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$38.88	72% 1114-425 (1539)
TY Tyatsmr	Noavg 94¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$111.42	— 2-0 (2)
TBill1	Noavg 92.8¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$113.35	2% 2-107 (109)
pIebeCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$83.59	— 6-5 (11)
GrokEnjoyer	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	3% 1-29 (30)
Optimus-	Noavg 95¢	$950	$950	+$0	— 0-8 (8)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 93¢	$186.43	$146.52	+$5.86	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$53.36	+$43.39	— 3-0 (3)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96¢	$44.67	$36.65	+$54.58	52% 1614-1486 (3100)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$18.99	$29.15	+$10.16	0% 0-98 (98)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.69	$25.1	+$20.41	49% 22-23 (45)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$5.25	+$4.27	58% 527-386 (913)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.85	$4.55	+$3.7	18% 819-3634 (4453)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$4	+$3.25	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$4	+$3.25	— 10-1 (11)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.72	$3.86	+$3.14	37% 3509-6100 (9609)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.35	+$0.28	32% 551-1148 (1699)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.03	$0.14	+$0.11	25% 1250-3717 (4967)

DrSlips

Invested

$30,706.5

Value

$31.2K

PnL

+$486.7

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Kevindoto

Invested

$10,358.58

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$191.31

Record

—

3-5 (8)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$7,388.15

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$38.88

Record

72%

1114-425 (1539)

Tyatsmr

Invested

$6,982.24

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$111.42

Record

—

2-0 (2)

TBill1

Invested

$3,686.89

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$113.35

Record

2-107 (109)

pIebeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,462.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$83.59

Record

—

6-5 (11)

GrokEnjoyer

Invested

$1,055.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

1-29 (30)

Optimus-

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-8 (8)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$186.43

Value

$146.52

PnL

+$5.86

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$43.39

Record

—

3-0 (3)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$44.67

Value

$36.65

PnL

+$54.58

Record

52%

1614-1486 (3100)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$29.15

PnL

+$10.16

Record

0-98 (98)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.69

Value

$25.1

PnL

+$20.41

Record

49%

22-23 (45)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$4.27

Record

58%

527-386 (913)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$3.7

Record

18%

819-3634 (4453)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

PnL

+$3.25

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

PnL

+$3.25

Record

—

10-1 (11)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$3.14

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.28

Record

32%

551-1148 (1699)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.11

Record

25%

1250-3717 (4967)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (20 on Yes) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.