Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$2.7K
$224.72
72.9¢ → 89¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$13.91 | 90% 5026-573 (5599) |
 ENORMOUZ | Noavg 49.5¢ | $485.42 | $901.97 | +$436.45 | 81% 109-26 (135) |
 Car | Noavg 77.6¢ | $253.02 | $309.81 | +$56.8 | 67% 4314-2146 (6460) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $926.97 | $152.4 | +$73.65 | 34% 19360-36909 (56269) |
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $93.75 | $75 | -$18.75 | 63% 24-14 (38) |
 Marco-RubioCTR | Yesavg 57¢ | $285 | $30 | -$232.5 | 53% 498-446 (944) |
 MEPPCTR | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $111.5 | $12.12 | -$99.38 | 64% 640-358 (998) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $0.6 | -$5.45 | 65% 622-341 (963) |
Invested
$1,241.88
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.91
Record
90%
5026-573 (5599)
ENORMOUZInvested
$485.42
Value
$901.97
PnL
+$436.45
Record
81%
109-26 (135)
CarInvested
$253.02
Value
$309.81
PnL
+$56.8
Record
67%
4314-2146 (6460)
Invested
$926.97
Value
$152.4
PnL
+$73.65
Record
34%
19360-36909 (56269)
Invested
$93.75
Value
$75
PnL
-$18.75
Record
63%
24-14 (38)
Marco-RubioCTRInvested
$285
Value
$30
PnL
-$232.5
Record
53%
498-446 (944)
MEPPCTRInvested
$111.5
Value
$12.12
PnL
-$99.38
Record
64%
640-358 (998)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$5.45
Record
65%
622-341 (963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.