Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 12, 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$37.17

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 97.3¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,655

Combined PnL+$111.37

Yes4 traders

Total Value$28.68

Total Shares1,195

Combined PnL-$148.55

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 96.1¢	$894.47	$908.38	+$13.91	63% 24-14 (38)
Car	Noavg 87¢	$333.53	$373.98	+$40.46	67% 4314-2146 (6460)
ENORMOUZ	Noavg 80.9¢	$276.37	$333.38	+$57.01	81% 109-26 (135)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$22.5	$16	-$6.5	47% 2082-2393 (4475)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$602.62	$6.19	-$101.06	34% 19360-36909 (56269)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$42.66	$6.01	-$36.64	65% 622-341 (963)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$12.46	$0.48	-$4.34	40% 6553-9836 (16389)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$894.47

Value

$908.38

PnL

+$13.91

Record

63%

24-14 (38)

Car

Invested

$333.53

Value

$373.98

PnL

+$40.46

Record

67%

4314-2146 (6460)

ENORMOUZ

Invested

$276.37

Value

$333.38

PnL

+$57.01

Record

81%

109-26 (135)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.5

Value

$16

PnL

-$6.5

Record

47%

2082-2393 (4475)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$602.62

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$101.06

Record

34%

19360-36909 (56269)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.66

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$36.64

Record

65%

622-341 (963)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.46

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$4.34

Record

40%

6553-9836 (16389)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.