Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $106 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$105.81

Combined PnL

-$58.8

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$47.1

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$0.41

Yes10 traders

Total Value$58.68

Total Shares3,003

Combined PnL-$59.22

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4981h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

145 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$46.69	$47.1	+$0.41	77% 12942-3921 (16863)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$83.03	$16.95	-$66.09	57% 877-672 (1549)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$4.04	$13.54	+$9.15	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.96	$9.11	+$5.91	38% 192-307 (499)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$21	$6.28	-$18.79	68% 2117-1002 (3119)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$193.45	$5.56	+$12.24	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.4	$3.73	+$2.07	45% 758-914 (1672)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$17.93	$2.82	-$4.18	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.55	$0.57	+$0.02	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$10.12	$0.11	+$0.46	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$12.18	$0.03	-$0.01	41% 2520-3700 (6220)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$46.69

Value

$47.1

PnL

+$0.41

Record

77%

12942-3921 (16863)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.03

Value

$16.95

PnL

-$66.09

Record

57%

877-672 (1549)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.04

Value

$13.54

PnL

+$9.15

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.96

Value

$9.11

PnL

+$5.91

Record

38%

192-307 (499)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$18.79

Record

68%

2117-1002 (3119)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.45

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$12.24

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$2.07

Record

45%

758-914 (1672)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.93

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$4.18

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.02

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.46

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

2520-3700 (6220)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4981h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

145 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.0%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3188.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

3288.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.