Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 14¢ · $417 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$417.43
$22.36
44.5¢ → 14¢
-69% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
659h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 37.1¢ | $104.77 | $256.36 | +$151.59 | 41% 1354-1916 (3270) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 64.1¢ | $403.12 | $81.01 | -$301.25 | 61% 1197-759 (1956) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $189.48 | $62.5 | +$177.37 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $14.9 | -$2.3 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $5.32 | $2.66 | -$3.04 | 50% 391-397 (788) |
probabilityInvested
$104.77
Value
$256.36
PnL
+$151.59
Record
41%
1354-1916 (3270)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$403.12
Value
$81.01
PnL
-$301.25
Record
61%
1197-759 (1956)
Invested
$189.48
Value
$62.5
PnL
+$177.37
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$14.9
PnL
-$2.3
Record
41%
11-16 (27)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$5.32
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$3.04
Record
50%
391-397 (788)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.