Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
-$9.88
75.2¢ → 65¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
616h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 73.2¢ | $879.42 | $913.09 | -$56.44 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 84.3¢ | $248.97 | $209.59 | -$39.37 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $46.32 | $114.17 | +$67.85 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $12.78 | $14.19 | +$1.41 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.55 | $13.12 | +$16.67 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
ScottyNoooInvested
$879.42
Value
$913.09
PnL
-$56.44
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$248.97
Value
$209.59
PnL
-$39.37
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$46.32
Value
$114.17
PnL
+$67.85
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$14.19
PnL
+$1.41
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$13.12
PnL
+$16.67
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.