Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$253.49

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 75.2¢

+71% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,133

Combined PnL+$368.34

Yes4 traders

Total Value$323.69

Total Shares698

Combined PnL-$114.86

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

322h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Noavg 40¢	$227.06	$342.86	+$115.8	— 1-6 (7)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 44.5¢	$228.14	$294.11	+$65.97	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 64.9¢	$360.91	$247.63	-$113.28	— 0-11 (11)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 58.2¢	$115.88	$143.27	+$27.4	66% 4077-2094 (6171)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 46.4¢	$123.02	$134.53	+$11.51	53% 5438-4880 (10318)
balthazar	Noavg 39.9¢	$86.83	$131.34	+$44.51	50% 4565-4478 (9043)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 56.2¢	$87.13	$111.6	+$24.47	8% 32-370 (402)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$36.2	$57.98	+$21.78	15% 3-17 (20)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.5¢	$44.5	$44.5	-$0	50% 22-22 (44)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$33.56	$43.82	+$10.26	— 1-18 (19)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 26.8¢	$16.05	$36.24	+$20.19	29% 854-2135 (2989)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$20.4	$25.04	+$4.64	18% 60-275 (335)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 66.7¢	$21.82	$22.66	+$0.84	4% 1-24 (25)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$9.87	$18.12	+$8.25	25% 831-2479 (3310)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$14.42	$16.29	+$1.88	29% 2560-6176 (8736)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 33.6¢	$6.72	$12.08	+$5.36	40% 1420-2155 (3575)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$6.36	$12.08	+$5.72	44% 240-310 (550)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 56.6¢	$11.32	$8.9	-$2.42	51% 76-73 (149)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$1.38	$1.99	+$0.61	39% 264-420 (684)

shovelingdigging

Invested

$227.06

Value

$342.86

PnL

+$115.8

Record

—

1-6 (7)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$228.14

Value

$294.11

PnL

+$65.97

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$360.91

Value

$247.63

PnL

-$113.28

Record

—

0-11 (11)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$115.88

Value

$143.27

PnL

+$27.4

Record

66%

4077-2094 (6171)

cigarettes

Invested

$123.02

Value

$134.53

PnL

+$11.51

Record

53%

5438-4880 (10318)

balthazar

Invested

$86.83

Value

$131.34

PnL

+$44.51

Record

50%

4565-4478 (9043)

smallreceipt

Invested

$87.13

Value

$111.6

PnL

+$24.47

Record

32-370 (402)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$36.2

Value

$57.98

PnL

+$21.78

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.5

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$33.56

Value

$43.82

PnL

+$10.26

Record

—

1-18 (19)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$36.24

PnL

+$20.19

Record

29%

854-2135 (2989)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$25.04

PnL

+$4.64

Record

18%

60-275 (335)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.82

Value

$22.66

PnL

+$0.84

Record

1-24 (25)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$8.25

Record

25%

831-2479 (3310)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.42

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$1.88

Record

29%

2560-6176 (8736)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$5.36

Record

40%

1420-2155 (3575)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$5.72

Record

44%

240-310 (550)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$2.42

Record

51%

76-73 (149)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.61

Record

39%

264-420 (684)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

322h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.1%

75.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.