Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $739 held · ends Nov 3

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$739.38

Combined PnL

$82.16

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 92.8¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$677.55

Total Shares714

Combined PnL+$60.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$61.84

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$21.98

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 86.6¢	$546.5	$598.56	+$52.06	61% 203-131 (334)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$70.87	$78.99	+$8.12	39% 9-14 (23)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$68.93	$44.5	+$15.84	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$7.22	$17.33	+$6.14	47% 2029-2245 (4274)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$546.5

Value

$598.56

PnL

+$52.06

Record

61%

203-131 (334)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$70.87

Value

$78.99

PnL

+$8.12

Record

39%

9-14 (23)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.93

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$15.84

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.22

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$6.14

Record

47%

2029-2245 (4274)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.0%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.