Will the Republican Party hold exactly 47 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$4.1K
-$154.64
85.7¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 86¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$9.26 | 71% 6976-2782 (9758) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 85.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$6.17 | 44% 30-38 (68) |
AN anciano | Noavg 86.1¢ | $491.24 | $487.69 | -$3.56 | 52% 1169-1072 (2241) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $3.6K | $396.22 | +$22.14 | 45% 2390-2958 (5348) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $78.3 | $76.5 | -$0.45 | 42% 5370-7408 (12778) |
 sciuboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $33.8 | $41.07 | +$7.27 | 38% 205-330 (535) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $26.12 | $25.75 | +$0.08 | 57% 17871-13366 (31237) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 86.2¢ | $478.98 | $21.14 | -$177.04 | 35% 17396-32076 (49472) |
Invested
$1,593.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$9.26
Record
71%
6976-2782 (9758)
Invested
$1,428.82
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$6.17
Record
44%
30-38 (68)
Invested
$491.24
Value
$487.69
PnL
-$3.56
Record
52%
1169-1072 (2241)
Invested
$3,636.27
Value
$396.22
PnL
+$22.14
Record
45%
2390-2958 (5348)
Invested
$78.3
Value
$76.5
PnL
-$0.45
Record
42%
5370-7408 (12778)
sciuboiCTR<$100Invested
$33.8
Value
$41.07
PnL
+$7.27
Record
38%
205-330 (535)
Invested
$26.12
Value
$25.75
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
17871-13366 (31237)
Invested
$478.98
Value
$21.14
PnL
-$177.04
Record
35%
17396-32076 (49472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.