Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $641 held · ended Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$640.71

Combined PnL

-$24.1

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 95.9¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$622.96

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$10.46

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.75

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$34.56

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.1¢	$388.78	$292.16	+$51.29	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
BlondBeast	Noavg 93.1¢	$272.4	$273.1	-$46.7	69% 804-357 (1161)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 89¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	14% 461-2758 (3219)
AL almost-never<$100	Noavg 68¢	$13.6	$18.95	+$5.35	44% 165-209 (374)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 91¢	$20.03	$18.75	+$0.72	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$36.41	$8.13	-$28.22	43% 578-768 (1346)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$6.96	$6.96	-$10.12	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.36	$1.88	+$6.32	50% 99-98 (197)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$3.33	$0.79	-$2.55	27% 6849-18792 (25641)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$388.78

Value

$292.16

PnL

+$51.29

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

BlondBeast

Invested

$272.4

Value

$273.1

PnL

-$46.7

Record

69%

804-357 (1161)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

almost-never<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$18.95

PnL

+$5.35

Record

44%

165-209 (374)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$20.03

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

lava-lavaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.41

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$28.22

Record

43%

578-768 (1346)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$10.12

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$6.32

Record

50%

99-98 (197)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$2.55

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.