Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$53.11

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 1¢

-98% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,326

Combined PnL+$507.83

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.33

Total Shares1,033

Combined PnL-$560.94

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

139h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 7.5¢	$50.12	$647.91	+$237.86	38% 1197-1984 (3181)
Haradwaith	No	$282.13	$282.13	+$166.91	40% 6517-9785 (16302)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 99.5¢	$232.78	$230.45	-$1.16	67% 812-395 (1207)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 34.6¢	$53.29	$152.43	+$99.14	47% 114-128 (242)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 59¢	$566.38	$9.6	-$556.3	45% 529-655 (1184)
LA lava-lava<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.66	$7.75	+$5.09	43% 592-781 (1373)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$4.92	$0.6	-$4.32	37% 3298-5675 (8973)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.47	$0.13	-$0.33	26% 7302-21086 (28388)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$50.12

Value

$647.91

PnL

+$237.86

Record

38%

1197-1984 (3181)

Haradwaith

Invested

$282.13

Value

$282.13

PnL

+$166.91

Record

40%

6517-9785 (16302)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$232.78

Value

$230.45

PnL

-$1.16

Record

67%

812-395 (1207)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$53.29

Value

$152.43

PnL

+$99.14

Record

47%

114-128 (242)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$566.38

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$556.3

Record

45%

529-655 (1184)

lava-lava<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$5.09

Record

43%

592-781 (1373)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$4.32

Record

37%

3298-5675 (8973)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.33

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

139h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4711.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

4811.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.