Will the Republican Party win the TN-02 House seat?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$27.85

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,861

Combined PnL+$9.16

No6 traders

Total Value$2.16

Total Shares4,000

Combined PnL-$37.01

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Yesavg 99.8¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$5.32	99% 4331-40 (4371)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 93.5¢	$80.52	$77.57	+$4.37	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 96.8¢	$8.55	$8.03	-$0.52	73% 13523-5052 (18575)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$30.89	$1.89	-$29.01	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$7.26	$0.2	-$7.06	48% 6916-7563 (14479)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$0.74	$0.04	-$0.71	53% 28766-25687 (54453)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 1.4¢	$0.14	$0.02	+$0.05	50% 1703-1693 (3396)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$0.27	$0.02	-$0.25	30% 2167-5020 (7187)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.01	-$0.04	60% 11537-7729 (19266)

pelik

Yes

Invested

$3,768.32

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$5.32

Record

99%

4331-40 (4371)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.52

Value

$77.57

PnL

+$4.37

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.52

Record

73%

13523-5052 (18575)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$29.01

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$7.06

Record

48%

6916-7563 (14479)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.71

Record

53%

28766-25687 (54453)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1703-1693 (3396)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.25

Record

30%

2167-5020 (7187)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.