Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.2K
-$257.3
71.5¢ → 82¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
374h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $863.3 | $1.0K | +$176.11 | 61% 201-129 (330) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $801.09 | $451.8 | -$349.29 | 40% 306-460 (766) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 79.3¢ | $429.11 | $443.74 | +$14.63 | 36% 8-14 (22) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $282.43 | $163.06 | -$78.37 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $115.06 | $94.68 | -$20.38 | 50% 1633-1626 (3259) |
Invested
$863.3
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$176.11
Record
61%
201-129 (330)
Invested
$801.09
Value
$451.8
PnL
-$349.29
Record
40%
306-460 (766)
Invested
$429.11
Value
$443.74
PnL
+$14.63
Record
36%
8-14 (22)
Invested
$282.43
Value
$163.06
PnL
-$78.37
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
Invested
$115.06
Value
$94.68
PnL
-$20.38
Record
50%
1633-1626 (3259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.