Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 76¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
1 arb excluded
$431.65
-$9.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $279.55 | $198.26 | -$6.6 | 50% 1651-1638 (3289) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 24.9¢ | $249.6 | $95.38 | -$8.71 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24.9¢ | $54.4 | $51.43 | +$33.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $45.02 | $43.95 | -$42.33 | |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $65.09 | $77.49 | +$12.4 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $26.62 | $21.17 | -$5.44 | 29% 172-429 (601) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $25.86 | $20.57 | -$5.29 | 40% 393-591 (984) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $15.44 | $12.28 | -$3.16 | 29% 195-489 (684) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $8.16 | $6.49 | -$1.67 | 0% 0-28 (28) |
Invested
$279.55
Value
$198.26
PnL
-$6.6
Record
50%
1651-1638 (3289)
Invested
$249.6
Value
$95.38
PnL
-$8.71
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.09
Value
$77.49
PnL
+$12.4
Record
41%
11-16 (27)
Invested
$26.62
Value
$21.17
PnL
-$5.44
Record
29%
172-429 (601)
Invested
$25.86
Value
$20.57
PnL
-$5.29
Record
40%
393-591 (984)
Invested
$15.44
Value
$12.28
PnL
-$3.16
Record
29%
195-489 (684)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$6.49
PnL
-$1.67
Record
0%
0-28 (28)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.