Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$4.4K
$749.21
84.9¢ → 92.5¢
+9% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
321h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Noavg 87.7¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$105.39 | 70% 847-366 (1213) |
SI SitsToPee | Noavg 80.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$668.63 | 61% 284-183 (467) |
 ifyouloveme | Noavg 89¢ | $178 | $185 | +$7 | 44% 18-23 (41) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 82.3¢ | $344.94 | $132.2 | -$34.76 | 35% 17316-32015 (49331) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 91¢ | $101 | $99.02 | -$1.02 | 16% 417-2210 (2627) |
AN anciano | Noavg 87¢ | $105.53 | $80.43 | +$6.5 | 52% 1168-1072 (2240) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 89¢ | $318.03 | $70.34 | -$6.31 | 42% 5367-7395 (12762) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $64.58 | $59.74 | +$2.86 | 57% 17750-13286 (31036) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $47.05 | $53.73 | +$6.68 | 74% 12148-4326 (16474) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $210.48 | $15 | -$5 | 51% 2116-2028 (4144) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $10 | $10.39 | +$0.39 | 58% 6109-4414 (10523) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $3.63 | $2.48 | -$1.16 | 53% 7631-6759 (14390) |
mrworldwideInvested
$1,926.23
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$105.39
Record
70%
847-366 (1213)
Invested
$1,715.28
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$668.63
Record
61%
284-183 (467)
ifyoulovemeInvested
$178
Value
$185
PnL
+$7
Record
44%
18-23 (41)
Invested
$344.94
Value
$132.2
PnL
-$34.76
Record
35%
17316-32015 (49331)
IstarothInvested
$101
Value
$99.02
PnL
-$1.02
Record
16%
417-2210 (2627)
Invested
$105.53
Value
$80.43
PnL
+$6.5
Record
52%
1168-1072 (2240)
Invested
$318.03
Value
$70.34
PnL
-$6.31
Record
42%
5367-7395 (12762)
Invested
$64.58
Value
$59.74
PnL
+$2.86
Record
57%
17750-13286 (31036)
Invested
$47.05
Value
$53.73
PnL
+$6.68
Record
74%
12148-4326 (16474)
Invested
$210.48
Value
$15
PnL
-$5
Record
51%
2116-2028 (4144)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.39
Record
58%
6109-4414 (10523)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$1.16
Record
53%
7631-6759 (14390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.