Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 5%-15%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 83¢ · $173 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$173.24
-$2
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 longliveapples | Yesavg 82.4¢ | $142.54 | $143.99 | +$1.45 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.7¢ | $12.53 | $12.56 | +$0.04 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.2¢ | $10.3 | $10.05 | -$0.25 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.8¢ | $8.62 | $5.59 | -$3.03 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.1¢ | $1.26 | $1.05 | -$0.21 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
longliveapplesInvested
$142.54
Value
$143.99
PnL
+$1.45
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$12.53
Value
$12.56
PnL
+$0.04
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.3
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$8.62
Value
$5.59
PnL
-$3.03
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.21
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.