Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 15%-20%?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$36.16

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 87.5¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$983.58

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL+$36.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 73.9¢	$1.4K	$770.32	+$56.28	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$216.83	$183.28	-$18.83	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$131.69	$120.96	-$10.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.5¢	$61.46	$62.32	-$8.11
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 74.5¢	$161.57	$143.09	-$18.48	50% 1098-1105 (2203)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$166.24	$116.78	-$8.66	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$76.5	$66	-$15.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$43.84	$50.78	+$6.94
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$38.06	$35.88	-$2.17	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 84¢	$15.5	$12.18	-$3.32	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 65¢	$9.75	$9.9	+$0.15	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$10.31	$6.61	+$5.2	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$5.79	$4.57	-$1.22	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$1.29	$1.02	-$0.27	59% 11831-8157 (19988)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,398.7

Value

$770.32

PnL

+$56.28

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$216.83

Value

$183.28

PnL

-$18.83

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$131.6971.8¢-$10.72

Yes$61.4633.5¢-$8.11

Albert 1953

Invested

$161.57

Value

$143.09

PnL

-$18.48

Record

50%

1098-1105 (2203)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$166.24

Value

$116.78

PnL

-$8.66

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

Both legs:

No$76.576.5¢-$15.6

Yes$43.8429.4¢+$6.94

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$38.06

Value

$35.88

PnL

-$2.17

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$3.32

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$10.31

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$5.2

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

merod<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$1.22

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.27

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.